Riveting

News of the Prisoners

A- Transfers

• Mousavi’s senior adviser Ali Reza Beheshti Shirazi transferred to hospital.
• National-Religious activist Masoud Pedram has been transferred back to Ward 350 from Ward 2-A solitary.

B- Arrests/Incarcerations

• Rastin Aalemi, student in Mazandaran University arrested.
• Sholeh Afshari, Baha’i, arrested in Isfahan.
• Ali Aghazadeh, merchant in Tabriz bazar, arrested.
• Hossein Ahmadian arrested in Maragheh.
• Mostafa Avazpour, arrested in Tabriz for protesting against Lake Urmiah drying up.
• Mohammad Eskandarzadeh arrested in Tabriz for protesting against Lake Urmiah drying up.
• Bahram Ferdosian, Baha’i, arrested in Isfahan.
• Abolfazl Garamani, student in Mazandaran University arrested.
• Mehran Keshavarz, Sepah soldier, arrested in Urmiah for protesting against lake drying up.
• Pouria Khaleghi, student in Mazandaran University arrested.
• Rouhollah Khani arrested in Urmiah for protesting against lake drying up.
• Askar Khaniari arrested in Urmiah for protesting against lake drying up.
• Hasan Mirzakhani arrested in Tabriz for protesting against Lake Urmiah drying up.
• Akbar Mohajeri arrested in Tabriz for protesting against Lake Urmiah drying up.
• Hamid Noghoudi arrested in Urmiah for protesting against Lake Urmiah drying up.
• Ghader Norouzi arrested in Tabriz for protesting against lake drying up.
• Esrafil Omidi, student in Shahid Beheshti University, arrested in Urmiah for protesting against lake drying up.
• Mana Pirali, Baha’i, arrested in Isfahan.
• Mehrdad Raha arrested in Urmiah for protesting against lake drying up.
• Mobin Rastemian student in Mazandaran University arrested
• Fariborz Reisdana, economist, member of Iran Writers Association, arrested to serve out a 1-year prison term.
• Azam Tabibi, Baha’i, arrested in Isfahan.
• Afsaneh Toghi arrested inside Tabriz University for protesting against Lake Urmiah drying up.
• Arrests at a private party (9 men + 6 women) where alcohol was served.
• Tens of people arrested in East and West Azarbaijan for protesting the drying up of Lake Urmiah.

C-Liberations

• Clergy/blogger Ahmad Reza Ahmadpour ended his hunger strike after being granted furlough.
• Journalist Rahman Bouzari was transferred to Evin prison on Saturday to start serving his 2 years sentence.
• Mahdieh Golroo, student activist, was released at the end of her sentence.
• Women’s rights activist Mahboobeh Karami was released on bail a little while ago. She’d been detained since May 15 last year.
• Teachers Trade unionist Ali Poursoleiman was released after completing his one year sentence.
• Author and literary translator Mohammad Soleimaninia has been released on bail.

D-Other News

• Mohammad Sedigh Kaboudvand has been on hunger strike since May 4th.
• Iran to retry Kurdish Moradi brothers sentenced to death.
• Mohammad Reza Motamednia has ended his hunger strike after 42 days.
• Political prisoner Mansour Radpour has died in custody in Rejaei Shahr prison.
• Imprisoned blogger Hossein Ronaghi Maleki has started a hunger strike.
• Prison officials recently admitted to using trained dogs to attack prisoners as a punishment.

News of injustice in Iran

• Mostafa Armin, Kurdish activist, sentenced to 15.5 years in prison + exile for Moharebeh.
• Nioosha Badi Sabet, Baha’i, sentenced to 1 year in prison + 1 year suspended.
• Saeed Derayat, Kurdish activist, sentenced to 4 years in prison.
• Ali Divsalar, Baha’i, sentenced to 2 years in prison + 2 years suspended.
• Anisa Fanaian, Baha’i sentenced to 4 years and 4 months..
• Abolfazl Ghadiani sentenced to one extra year in prison for writing to Khamenei.
• Court of Appeals upheld 3 1/2 years in prison+70 lashes for Mashhad Ferdowsi University student Mohammad Ghafarian.
• Solmaz Ghasemi, Baha’i, sentenced to 1 year in prison + 1 year suspended.
• Sarah Haj Ebrahimi Baha’i, sentenced to 2 years in prison + 2 years suspended.
• Mousa Hatefi, Kurdish activist, sentenced to 7 years in prison.
• Reza Jolodarzadeh Editor-in-Chief of banned weekly Sobhe Azadi has been sentenced to 1 year in prison.
• Sabah Khaiat sentenced to 6 years by Appeals.
• Ali Marhamati, Kurdish activist, sentenced to 4 years in prison.
• Shamis Nourani, Baha’i, sentenced to 1 year in prison + 1 year suspended.
• No one found guilty for the 4 death of Hoda Saber (political prisoner died after 9-days hunger strike) and Haleh Sahabi (died at father funeral) Prosecutor.
• Amir Seif sentenced to 5 years + 74 lashes on anti-national security acts by participating in protests and insulting officials.
• Two people executed in Esfahan on Saturday.
• Seven people executed in Lakan prison in Rasht on Sunday.
• 14 people hanged on Monday of which two men in Sanandaj, one man in Sari and one in Kermanshah.
• Man convicted of alcohol consumption was lashed in public in Mianeh.
• 3 people were hanged in Adelabad prison in Shiraz on Tuesday.
• A man received 74 lashes in public in Dashte Azadegan in Khozestan province
• One pubic hanging in Ilam on Thursday.

University – Culture

• Education Ministry is cooperating with theological seminaries to produce elementary school textbooks.
• Members of music group [rap band ] “vibrations” were arrested in Mahabad.
• Reuters Bureau Chief in Tehran, Parisa Hafezi ‏has been banned from leaving Iran.
• 9 internet cafes shut down due to using proxy filters.
• Asghar Farhadi received EU Media prize in Cannes – he will direct his next film in France.
• Iran’s Abbas Kiarostami relocates to Japan for Cannes entry ‘Like Someone in Love’.
• Iran to issue media licenses to foreign media from Latin America and “Islamic Awakening” countries.
• The Elamite rock bas-relief of Kurangun in the Baba Meydan region of Fars Province, faces destruction.
• Shiraz Payamnour University English language and literature student Yekta Fahandezh has been expelled for being of Baha’i faith.

Protests

• Protests in Urmiah on Monday against drying up of the Lake.
• Preschool teachers protest in front of Parliament.
• Clandestine Gay Rights Rally in Tehran.

Economy in Iran

• Water bills to rise 20%.
• $1 = 1700 tomans.
• South Korea’s largest oil refiner SK Energy will stop Iranian crude imports from July.
• 800 Metro workers have not been paid for five months in Ahvaz.
• Iranian oil exports to China down by 23% in April compared to last year.
• Iran plans a new oil terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz to protect its exports.
• Hundreds of brick making factories closed down; thousands of seasonal workers unemployed in Kermanshah.
• Fire erupts in petrochemical plant in Khuzestan province.
• Iran to export oil products to Ecuador.

Iran  abroad

• FM Ali Akbar Salehi left for Kuwait on Sunday.
• Iran calls back ambassador from Azerbaijan.
• Three Iranian truck drivers were abducted in Syria.
• Hojjat 0l-Eslam Mohammad Mohammadi, the Supreme Leader’s representative and head of the Islamic Charities Organization, met with Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah.
• Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili met with Iraq’s Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki and President Jalal Talabani.
• Ahmadinejad meets with Sudan’s presidential adviser.
• Ahmadinejad invites Syria’s Assad, to visit Tehran to take part in a meeting of Non-Aligned Movement.
• Iran and Afghanistan have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on cooperation on an anti-narcotics campaign.
• There are currently 5,700 Iranians registered as refugees or asylum seekers in Turkey.

Politics in Iran

• Iranian diplomat accused of child molestation in Brazil fired from Foreign Ministry.
• Former deputy head of the Central Bank accused in fraud case attends government meetings.
• Deal signed to split oil revenue between outlets of IRGC and Basij militia.

Miscellaneous

• Iranians buying oxygen tanks to escape Tehran’s polluted air: 5 minutes of oxygen, for $3.
• Landmine explosion kills two.
• Bodies of 98 Iranians and 13 Iraqis killed during 1980-1988 war returned to their native countries on Monday.

0610 GMT: We open this morning with an analysis linking the nuclear discussions with economic issues, “Propaganda, Negotiations, and the Economic Ties That Bind”.

And this is not the only case of reality and rhetoric this morning. On Friday, the latest International Atomic Energy report on Iran’s nuclear programme was posted. The conclusion is a brief re-statement of the IAEA’s position in recent years —- while there is no evidence of Tehran’s diversion of uranium to a militarised effort, the Agency would like wider access to Iranian facilities, confirmed by the Islamic Republic’s accession to the Additional Protocol of the Safeguards Agreement regulating inspections: 

While the Agency continues to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material at the nuclear facilities and LOFs declared by Iran under its Safeguards Agreement, as Iran is not providing the necessary cooperation, including by not implementing its Additional Protocol, the Agency is unable to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran, and therefore to conclude that all nuclear material in Iran is in peaceful activities.

Progress was made on a structured approach to clarifying the issues outlined in the Annex to the 

Director General’s November 2011 report. The Director General invites Iran to expedite final agreement on the structured approach, as agreed with Mr Jalili, in Tehran on 21 May 2012, and urges Iran to engage the Agency on the substance of the issues as soon as possible, including by providing early access to the Parchin [military] site. 

The second round of talks between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, UK, France, Germany, China, Russia) on the nuclear programme are now receding. The third, to be held in Moscow, are more than three weeks away.

So it is now time for the Islamic Republic to put out stories about its economic achievements and success in repelling the aggressive sanctions of the “West”. Press TV offers an example:

Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yukio Edano says Tokyo is considering “realistic” options to ensure the country’s imports of Iranian crude are not disrupted.

“We are responding to this [Iran] issue through working with other ministries as a whole,” Edano told reporters at a press conference in Tokyo on Friday. He added, “By analyzing various risk factors and overall issues, we would like to ensure crude supplies [from Iran] will not be disrupted in a realistic manner.”

Here is what Press TV leaves out —- the already-significant impact of the sanctions on Japanese purchases of Tehran’s oil, with the possiblity of more constriction —- from the original report by Platts News Service:

Earlier this month, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, which handles 70-80% of the settlements for Japan’s trade with Iran, was reported to have frozen accounts held by Tehran in response to a May 2 order by a New York District Court….

The Japanese government is also considering guaranteeing up to $7.6 billion of insurance cover per tanker for shipments of Iranian crude oil to make up for the potential loss of protection and indemnity cover when European Union sanctions against Iran come into effect in July.

Unsurprisingly, Press TV fails to note that Japan’s “imports from Iran have fallen sharply despite an increase in overall oil demand after last year’s Fukushima nuclear disaster” and that Minister of Economy Edano said earlier this year that Tokyo’s purchases of Iranian oil are down 40% over the last five years.

But Press TV is not alone in its insistence that All Is Well. Former US Government official Flynt Leverett takes up the mission: 

Before the nuclear talks started again last month in Istanbul, Tehran calculated that American and European Union sanctions policies created at least as many problems for the United States and Europe as for Iran….The Iranians assess that the Obama Administration has an interest in keeping the negotiations going at least through the U.S. presidential election in November.

It is certainly true that Iran’s media outlets and spokesmen like academic Seyed Mohammad Marandi, who often sets the line followed by Leverett, are putting out the message that it is the US and Europe, not the Islamic Republic, who are economically weak —- this, rather than a genuine desire for agreement, is why Washington and allies are pursuing the nuclear talks. However, the argument is propaganda, not assessment, leaving the important question whether the Tehran’s officials actually believe the illusions of their rhetoric.

If they do, then they may be in for an awakening as they go to Moscow on 18-19 June. Given the economic difficulties within Iran, which cannot be masked by rose-coloured proclamations, and the European Union’s cut-off of Iranian oil imports from 1 July, US and European governments believe they have the upper hand. Having planned for alternative supplies to cover the drop in oil taken from Tehran, they can afford to play the game long. It is far from certain that the Islamic Republic can do so.

Still, there are ripples that could change the scenario. Amid this week’s headlines of the nuclear talks, this item has gone almost unnoticed, even by an Iranian media looking for glimmers of good news:

China’s imports of Iranian crude oil recovered in April after sharp drops earlier this year, suggesting Beijing remains a steady customer despite U.S. efforts to tighten sanctions on Tehran.

China’s April crude imports from Iran, at 1.6 million metric tons or about 390,000 barrels a day, were down almost 24% from a year earlier —- but up more than 48% from March.

Could Beijing offer some release from the economic ties that bind Iran? It is a question such as this, rather than the daily All-Is-Well fare of State media, that will affect the calculations going into the third, perhaps “make-or-break”, round of the nuclear talks.

0520 GMT: The headline from the two-day nuclear talks in Baghdad between Iran and the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, Russia, and China) is that the two sides will keep talking. The next round will be in Moscow on 18-19 June.

Later today, we will have a special analysis. For now, we re-post our immediate assessment from Thursday night, posted just after the statement by Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1:

1. Ashton tipped off the large gap between the 5+1 Powers and Iran on approach and proposals. The US and Europe effectively said, “We will only talk easing of sanctions after you give us what we want on your uranium enrichment.” Iran said at the same time, “Ease the sanctions and then we will consider giving you what you want.”

2. This gap was so wide that the Iranians were on the point of walking away from the talks on Wednesday night. Ashton’s emergency session with Iran’s Saeed Jalili —- almost two hours —- plus intervention from China and Russia probably averted that breakdown.

3. Moscow as a location for the next talks is a concession to Iran for continuing to talk. So is the date —- the discussions come two weeks before the European Union is scheduled to ban imports of Iranian oil.

4. But Moscow is now “make or break”. Either the US and Europe find enough to reverse the 1 July ban on Iranian oil, or the negotiations will break down with Iran’s declaration that the West will accept nothing less than its capitulation.

See also Iran Document: Statement By EU’s Catherine Ashton After Baghdad Talks</ br>
Iran Snap Analysis: A Way Out of Pessimism for the Nuclear Talks?

Iran Delegation at Baghdad Talks1. THE UNBRIDGEABLE GAP

“Significant differences remain.”

With those three words, Catherine Ashton, the lead negotiator for the 5+1 Powers (US, Britain, France, Germany, China, and Russia), summarised the near-failure of the two-day nuclear talks with Iran in Baghdad. 

For all the chatter about behind-the-scenes preparatory talks between the two sides, the 5+1 —- led by the US and its European allies —- put down an opening proposal which was never going to get a welcome from the Iranian delegation, even as a starting point. The demands remained, notably Iran’s commitment to give up enrichment of uranium to 20% and the closure of the Fordoo enrichment facility. The incentives were limited —- Iran might be able to enrich to 3.5%, with supplies of 20% uranium from outside countries —- and even insulting: the reference to the key issue of sanctions was “We could give you some spare parts for your civilian aircraft, having withheld these for years.”

The Iranians quickly tabled their own five-point plan. No details emerged, beyond Iranian State media’s declaration of a comprehensive package on nuclear and non-nuclear issues. It’s safe to presume, however, that Tehran was drawing the line of explicit recognition of its right to enrich and an initial Western gesture on economic and financial restrictions.

In short, the US and Europe announced, ”We will only talk easing of sanctions after you give us what we want on your uranium enrichment.” Iran replied, “Ease the sanctions and then we will consider giving you what you want.”

Despite twists and turns over the next 36 hours, those positions were not significantly altered.

2. THE NEAR-BREAKDOWN

By Wednesday, the Iranian delegation was on the point of a walkout and an effective suspension of talks after the second round in Baghdad. The message was across the Islamic Republic’s media, with its denunciation of the “outdated” US-European proposals and the claim that, due to American pressure, the promise of the opening discussions in Istanbul had been withdrawn. It was also in the statements being given by Iranian diplomats to Western journalists:

This is what we were afraid of. No one is going to accept these things this way. [Giving up] the 20 percent and shutting down Fordow [enrichment plant], in return for nothing? Nothing?

3. A TEMPORARY RESCUE

We do not know the details, but Ashton’s emergency session with Saeed Jalili, the lead Iranian negotiator, on Wednesday night probably averted a breakdown. The question was then whether a face-saving and negotiation-saving announcement could be arranged on Thursday.

The rescue came not through any shift in the positions of the two sides, but through some diplomatic framing. The talk throughout Thursday, including in the Iranian press, was that a third round of talks would be in Geneva. However, the eventual location was Moscow.

Just like the agreement to have this round in Iraq, with the perception of its support for Iran’s line, the choice of Russia —- usually framed as more accommodating of the Islamic Republic on the nuclear issue and sanctions —- for the next discussions on 18-19 June is a gesture to Tehran.

Even more important is the timing. The Moscow meeting will come two weeks before the guillotine —-  the European Union’s ban on imports of Iranian oil —- drops. Both in its symbolic and “real” effects, that suspension will be a significant tightening of the economic screw on Tehran. 

And let’s be clear: the Islamic Republic faces that prospect in a precarious position, given the combination of inflation, unemployment, declining production, currency issues, and a cut-off of imports and a choke-off of exports.

4. MAKE-OR-BREAK IN MOSCOW

So there can no repeat of Baghdad next month, no rescue with yet another agreement to talk elsewhere in a few weeks’ time.

Iran does not have that time.

The question then is how far the US and Europe go in their pressure, backed by the sanctions. Do they insist that the Islamic Republic effectively say “Uncle” before any relief is offered? Or is there truly a step-by-step process in which Iran will be able to enrich uranium to 5%, under well-defined inspections and safeguards, and have a guaranteed supply of 20% fuel for civilian uses such as medical isotopes?

If the Islamic Republic balks at the terms of that agreement —- because, for all the talk of its “five-point plan”, the US and Europe have the initiative —- then it has chosen the risk of economic and possibly political turmoil as well as renewed chatter about an Israeli military attack on its nuclear facilities

However, it will try to turn that risk to advantage. The regime will proclaim that it is the victim of Washington-led aggression, trying to rally international sympathy and —- more importantly —- domestic support. It will put out a message of defiance rather than surrender.

We are in the political and diplomatic equivalent of the game of “chicken”, in which “two drivers drive towards each other on a collision course: one must swerve, or both may die in the crash”.

Do the US and Europe let up on the accelerator on pressure? Does the Islamic Republic turn away? Or are both sides willing to risk the crash, because “if one driver swerves and the other does not, the one who swerved will be called a chicken”?